Unraveling the Jaylen Brown Trade

A discouraging end to a bizarre saga

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Having had several days to absorb the fallout from the Jaylen Brown trade, I find myself in the odd position of defending the deal from its most ardent detractors while continuing to be annoyed that it ever took place. Brown deserved better from the Celtics, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t reasons for making this trade. Reasons you may not like, but trading JB to Philly for Paul George and an uninspiring handful of draft picks is not without an underlying rationale.

We’ll dissect the value end of this deal in greater detail below, but it’s worth discussing the damage to Brad Stevens’ reputation. The Bradlash, as it were, has begun. In rushing to make a move that could have been made next week, next month, or even next year, Stevens either panicked or got pushed into taking a bad deal.

What an odd turn of events for Stevens, who came into this offseason with an impeccable reputation as a basketball executive. He not only built a championship team, he was named Executive of the Year by his peers for his tactful skill in dismantling said roster. Before this moment, no one has ever questioned his basketball acumen on any level. Now we’re supposed to believe he’s turned into a 21st Century version of Rick Pitino, blindly trading players hither and yon with no regard to rhyme, reason, or rivalry?

If he was pushed into making this deal, the question is by whom. The new owner who has overseen a complete teardown of a championship-worthy roster in one year’s time? Was it Stevens himself, unsure of how to handle a pissed-off star’s demands? Demands, by the way, that Brown is said to not have made directly himself. Is there some other factor: a rift, an issue, a complication that we don’t know about? Surely, this can’t all be about Brown’s Twitch stream.

Whatever the underlying motivation, the fact that Stevens (and by extension, the Celtics) allowed this scenario to play out so publicly following Brown’s breakout season doesn’t speak well for the values the organization claims to possess. After a decade of success, both on and off the court, Stevens coldly traded a player who had invested more in the franchise and the city of Boston than any other Celtic in recent memory. All that goodwill, gone in exchange for a minimal return from a historical rival.

The whole organization would do well to keep any grumbling about Jaylen Brown’s time here to a minimum because no one wants to hear it. Brown is absolutely right to laugh about being labeled “The smartest guy in the room.” In sports, he said, that’s a pretty low fucking bar. Indeed.

It’s The Money, Stupid

The Celtics clearly didn’t want to pay Jaylen Brown more than a third of the salary cap over the next three years, let alone sign off on an extension that would have added another 2 years and $140 million to his current deal. Five years and $325 million is a lot of money for any player, let alone someone who isn’t even the best player on his own team.

The analytics say Brown has never been better than Tatum over a full season. The analytics also say that Derrick White is actually the best 2-way player on the roster and Payton Pritchard may be due for a bust out season without Jaylen Brown absorbing so many possessions. Most damning, the analytics say the Celtics (as a whole) perform a whole lot better when Brown isn’t playing.

You can disagree with that assessment, but it’s hard to fault the Celtics for not wanting to pay Brown like a top-10 player in the second apron environment when they don’t believe he’s that kind of player. It also seems pretty clear the rest of the league essentially agreed with the analytics. Not one team saw what Brown did for an undermanned Celtics team last season – including the Celtics! – and said, “Hey, sign me up for that.”

Not his hometown Hawks. Not the Blazers, who decided they’d rather bring Ja Morant out of exile. Not the Raptors who wanted 35-year-old Kawhi Leonard instead. Not the Bucks who turned down a deal for Giannis Antetokounmpo that would have included Brown and two first round picks going to Milwaukee.

Think about that one. The salaries were essentially a wash, but the difference in value between Jaylen and Giannis was two first round picks going the other way. If Giannis is still considered a top-5 player even after coming off an injury-plagued season, what does that make Jaylen Brown coming off his best season?

If JB’s contract is thought to be onerous, Paul George’s may be even worse. Paid max money for sub-maximal performance, PG’s career has turned into a cautionary tale about overpaying aging vets with a laundry list of injuries and a 25-game suspension for violating the league’s drug policy.

As dubious as paying George $110 million over the next two years sounds, it’s still three years and $200 million less than what the Sixers will presumably pay Jaylen Brown. Make no mistake: This trade is a bet against Brown living up to his contract terms. Time will tell if Stevens was right.

The Draft Picks

Rather than getting four – or even FIVE – first round draft picks for Brown as had been floated through the rumor mill, Stevens came home with one first rounder, a swap, and favorable terms on two second rounders. NBA nerds will tell you that second round picks have value, but come on. We were led to believe a bounty of picks was waiting to greet a Jaylen Brown trade and we’re left with the blue light draft special from the local Wawa. Shortie hoagies and mediocre picks for everyone!

While complicated, the upshot of the 2028 swap appears to be the Celtics stand to get a reasonably decent pick from either the Clippers or 76ers. There’s also a chance they can get first rounders from both teams, although neither choice would be high in the lottery. This isn’t an extra pick. The C’s still owe swap rights on their own 2028 pick to San Antonio (Derrick White) and the least favorable of the Boston-San Antonio picks would then go to Philly in exchange to favorable swap rights involving the Clippers and Sixers.

So, Stevens improved the Celtics draft positioning in 2028, which is fine. But it’s not the same as getting an additional first round pick. He did get Philly’s unprotected first rounder in 2031, which is the cleanest draft asset included in the deal. The irony is that some team may have been able to pocket a free first just for taking PG’s contract. They didn’t have to throw in Jaylen freaking Brown as well.

Given the mediocre draft compensation, one can only come to the conclusion that the rest of the league doesn’t view Jaylen Brown as anything close to a Top-10, Top-20, or even a Top-30 player commensurate with the terms of his contract. That’s not an “analytic” assessment. That’s a league-wide view spelled out in crystal clear trade terms.

If other teams valued Brown the way people around here do, they would have thrown assets at Stevens the way teams are lining up to throw picks at New Orleans for Trey Murphy III. In related news, if Stevens somehow comes out of this with Murphy, a lot of people will change their tune about this trade.

Paul George Isn’t Washed

If Stevens won (slightly) on contract terms, and took home a disappointing meh on draft compensation, he’s getting absolutely roasted on the talent portion of the transaction. Jaylen Brown is younger, healthier, and far more durable than Paul George. While PG long ago pronounced himself “Playoff P,” JB actually took home the Finals MVP hardware.

All these things are true, but there’s a universe where Paul George is a more effective player for the Celtics than Jaylen Brown. I didn’t say, better. I said, more effective. That universe depends entirely on George staying healthy and available, which he hasn’t been since arriving in Philly in 2023.

In his first season with the Sixers, George played in only 41 games and was plagued by an assortment of injuries. He wasn’t nearly as productive as he had been with the Clippers, and talked openly about losing some of his athleticism. If his first season was a wash, his second season with the Sixers was much stranger. After playing reasonably well to start the campaign, George was suspended for 25 games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

George suggested he took “an improper medication” while managing his mental health issues. Those who would lump George in with drug users from the 70s and 80s should check themselves before calling his character into question. PG owned his mistake, took responsibility for his actions, and played his best basketball as a Sixer after his return.

While nowhere near the All-Star caliber performer he was with the Clippers, George proved he still has value as a third, or even fourth, option. For a guy who came into the NBA with a reputation for being extremely raw, PG’s game has aged reasonably gracefully. He can still space the floor with his career 38 percent 3-point shooting, and he’s always been a capable rebounder and willing passer.

It’s his defense that separates George from other players. All the things that Brown said about being the best 2-way player in the game have actually applied to George throughout his career. All the glaring red numbers that show up in Brown’s defensive metrics turn to a soothing green whenever George is on the floor. Adjusted plus/minus may not think highly of Jaylen Brown’s contributions, but it absolutely adores what Paul George brings to the court.

The idea that PG is “washed” simply isn’t true. He showed as much during last year’s playoffs when he outplayed both Brown and Tatum during critical stretches of Philly’s comeback. Gone are the days when George could get you 28-and-8 every night. But if the Celtics can get 17-and-5 along with 30 minutes of top-tier defense, 60-65 times a year, they would be thrilled.

If that doesn’t happen, and George misses half the games again for a variety of reasons, Stevens will never hear the end of it. And rightfully so because he just traded one of the league’s most durable stars for one of its biggest question marks.

Hell No, I’m Not Happy

In sum, Stevens salary-dumped an All-NBA star in his prime coming off a career year for an aging former star with a year less on his contract and a handful of mid-level draft picks. There’s nothing to celebrate here, least of all the remarkable legacy of Jaylen Brown’s tenure in Boston, which was discarded like last week’s trash.

What Stevens (and the Celtics and whoever else is making these decisions) needs to think about is how Brown was treated during this process. All he’s done since arriving in Boston has been to give his best effort on and off the court. For that, he gets his name dragged through the rumor mill and traded to a longtime rival for a laughable return.

The way this was handled made me initially think that it was Brown who wanted out at all costs, not the other way around. This is a terrible look for a franchise that prides itself on its family atmosphere. The Celtics are supposed to embrace hard work, toughness, and loyalty. Now they look like just another pack of spreadsheet jackals beholden to a bottom line they keep swearing doesn’t exist.

Throughout his time in Boston, Jaylen Brown lived up to his end of the bargain. It would have been nice if the Celtics had treated his departure with more respect.