The Celtics Big Tax Dodge
A necessary, and potentially brilliant, piece of business
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I’m going to assume I’m dealing with an intelligent audience, so I’m going to assume everyone reading this understands the Celtics didn’t trade three players for minimal return to duck under the luxury tax because the new owner is cheap. They did it to properly contend for championships in the future without having to pay absurd repeater rates or deal with onerous roster restrictions.
If Bill Chisholm doesn’t want to pay the tax two years from now when those restrictions lift, or if he skimps on roster additions to save a few bucks, then we can call him cheap. Right now, we have to call this roster resettlement a necessary piece of salary cap business. To be sure, dumping three veteran players for a 2-way guy in the G-League doesn’t help the Celtics win now. But crucially, it doesn’t really hurt them either.
Chris Boucher, Xavier Tillman, and Josh Minott weren’t in Joe Mazzulla’s rotation. Getting under the luxury tax without having to give up rotation fixtures like Sam Hauser or first round picks is an organizational coup. Not because of financial obligations, although they are significant. The real motivation is future roster flexibility.
Specifically, the Celtics went under the luxury tax to open a window beginning in the summer of 2027 where they can spend whatever it takes to construct a championship contender, using every cap trick Mike Zarren can conjure to improve their roster. All it took was trading three players who don’t play and Anfernee Simons, who brought back Nikola Vucevic in return.
Here’s the catch. In order to properly escape the gilded tax prison the owners constructed for themselves, the Celtics need to stay under the luxury tax this year and next to avoid so-called repeater penalties. In essence, getting under the tax threshold this season cost them nothing but second round picks and some cash. Staying under the tax next season will require more cap mathematics than I’m prepared to perform at the moment.
Nevertheless, it took less than a year for Brad Stevens to reset the roster out of second apron purgatory to below the tax threshold completely, while still fielding a team capable of competing for a top playoff seed in the East. It’s a remarkable achievement that only looks dodgy in relation to their current position in the standings.
How could a contender cut costs? When cutting costs doesn’t really affect their status as contenders. This is the essentially same team it was before the deadline, only with Vucevic in for Simons. If anything, the Celtics might be better positioned to contend this year than they were before the trade deadline given Vucevic’s size and offensive ability. Next year may get a bit wonky, but they will definitely be better positioned to contend in the future if they can hold the fiscal line.
What about making a deal to contend now? Well, what about it? In addition to Vucevic, the notable big men moved at the deadline were Ivica Zubac and Jaren Jackson, Jr. The Celtics were said to be interested in both players. Both are younger, and arguably “better” than Vuvecvic. Both also required a small ransom in picks and players.
Ivica Zubac: Two first round picks from the Pacers, including a potential lottery selection in this year’s loaded draft, plus Benedict Mathurin and Isaiah Jackson. The Celtics weren’t beating that offer.
Jaren Jackson, Jr: Three first round picks, plus two recent first rounders on rookie deals (Walter Clayton, Jr. and Tyler Hendricks), plus veteran salary filler. All for a guy who will make $150 million over the next three years who doesn’t rebound and has myriad injury concerns.
Let’s translate that into a compelling Celtics offer: Three first round picks, Hugo Gonzalez, Jordan Walsh, and Anfernee Simons, plus maybe Sam Hauser. Thanks, but no thanks.
Getting under the tax never really seemed like a viable position until it presented itself. After trading Simons for Vucevic and lopping some $6 million off the payroll, Stevens had to dump the bottom three players from the roster to get under the tax. We’ll take them one by one.
Chris Boucher: A good idea that didn’t work. Someone will give him another chance, but the clock is ticking loudly on his career.
Xavier Tillman: I’m worried about this one strictly from a vibes perspective. Tillman didn’t play, which isn’t the same as saying he didn’t have a role. Tillman’s role was keeping everyone loose. You need a guy like that.
Josh Minott: This one hurts. Minott was a revelation early in the season. Alas, he lost his starting spot to Jordan Walsh and then fell behind Baylor Scheierman in the rotation. Somebody had to go, I just hate that it had to be Minott.
That leaves an active roster consisting of the following:
Guards: Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Baylor Scheierman
Wings: Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Jordan Walsh, Hugo Gonzalez
Bigs: Neemias Queta, Vucevic, Luka Garza, Amari Williams
Two-way players: Ron Harper, Jr, Max Shulga, John Tonje (acquired in the Boucher salary dump.)
That’s nine of the top 10 players in Mazzulla’s rotation, plus Vucevic who figures to play 20-30 minutes, and Williams who earned a promotion to the big club to serve as the fourth big. It doesn’t include Jayson Tatum who would obviously fill a huge role. You’d like to see another guard who can handle the ball, but even that becomes less of a necessity if and when Tatum returns.
With Vucevic replacing Simons, the Celtics get bigger and more versatile. Mazzulla can play double bigs or load up the backcourt with size. The super small lineups are probably a thing of the past, but they were fun once and we’ll always have our memories of Hugo frustrating Karl Anthony-Towns.
There are a couple of roster spots available, but not really any rotation spots to fill. That’s the key distinction. Given how close they are to going back over the tax, I wouldn’t expect them to be super active in the buyout market. Also, buyout guys don’t tend to move the needle that much. Before you bring up Khris Middleton, I need to remind you about Michael Finley.
So, no. The Celtics didn’t go under the luxury tax to be cheap. They did it to be smart. They did it to regain flexibility and utilize every competitive advantage to maximize Brown and Tatum’s championship window. If it turns out that isn’t the case and the new owner really is that cheap, I’ll be first in line with the pitchforks.