Early Thoughts on the Finals

Plus deeper ones on the Celtics roster

On paper, Oklahoma City and Indiana present a fascinating Finals matchup. If defense is OKC’s calling card, offense is how the Pacers made their name. Styles make compelling fights as they say, and this has a chance to be a highly absorbing series filled with top-level basketball. Both teams are deep, well-coached, and brimming with more talent than meets the eye.

On a different kind of paper, we’re looking at an unglamorous contest between small market franchises with no shared history between them. Thanks to parity and randomness, the NBA has somehow managed to become the NHL when it really wanted to be like the NFL. (I only know the Stanley Cup Finals are between Edmonton and Florida because I looked it up. Apparently it’s a rematch. Who knew?)

A great basketball series will redeem this Finals matchup. A one-sided 5-game affair controlled from start to finish by Oklahoma City will lead to lots of talk about how the league has lost its way. Just warning you now. It’s going to get annoying out there. If you’re someone who enjoys NBA basketball, try to tune out the noise and focus on the games. You’re not going to win debates based on bad-faith arguments.

I’ll be honest with you guys. When I launched this newsletter, I thought we’d be talking about the Celtics making a return to the Finals right now. That was the plan, but as we all know, plans change rapidly in the NBA.

I’ll be honest with you guys, Part II: I’m not convinced the Celtics would have made it past the Pacers even if Jayson Tatum hadn't torn his Achilles. Nor am I convinced they would have rallied from 3-1 down to beat the Knicks. I am even less convinced they would have held up against OKC in the Finals.

All of which is to say, change has to come. Which direction the Celtics will take is another matter entirely. There appear to be two ways this can go: A partial reboot centered on ducking under the second luxury tax apron, or a complete teardown that brings them under the tax entirely.

I have yet to hear a compelling argument for a third way. I’m sure they exist, and the rumor mill will be full of loud whispers between now and July. Any time you come up with scenarios involving more than one team, logistics take precedence over logic. In the interim, let’s take a more detailed look at who the Celtics have coming back, starting with the end of the bench.